Understanding the surface temperature response and its uncertainty to CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, black carbon, and sulfate

Abstract. Understanding the regional surface temperature responses to different anthropogenic climate forcing agents, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is crucial for understanding past future changes. In modern models, vary greatly all major but causes of this variability are poorly understood. Here, we analyze how changes in atmospheric oceanic energy fluxes due perturbations agents lead global temperatures. We use model data on idealized four (CO2, CH4, sulfate, black carbon aerosols) from Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) experiments six models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, NCAR-CESM1-CAM4, NorESM1, MIROC-SPRINTARS, GISS-E2). Particularly, decompose budget contributions longwave shortwave under clear-sky cloudy conditions, albedo changes, transport. also model-to-model response spread each these components. The stems emissivity (CO2 CH4) mainly aerosols (sulfate carbon). normalized by effective radiative nearly same (0.63, 0.54, 0.57, 0.61 K W−1 m2). While main physical processes driving between dominated differences modeled emissivity. Furthermore, polar regions change a key contributor its spread. For carbon, radiation important Arctic. Regional cloud effect strongly modulate other. clouds play role responses. with strong aerosol forcing, arise modulated combined heat transport models.